The much-watched quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, released today, predicts slower growth for California and the nation but says a recession will probably be avoided.

Many analysts believe the economy is about to go into a recession, if it hasn't already, due to the one-two punch of a collapsed real estate market and the impact of high energy prices. A recession is generally defined as a contraction in economic activity, as opposed to slower growth.

But UCLA economist Jerry Nickelsburg said in his forecast that the slowdown in California apparently hasn't spread much beyond the housing sector. Although "we are predicting a very weak California economy in 2008," the state should avoid a recession, he wrote.

"California will weather the slowdown of economic growth based on its diversified economy, its Pacific Rim export orientation and a surging agricultural industry," he wrote.

Statewide unemployment has increased to 6.2 percent in recent months, but California is still adding jobs, albeit at a slower rate than last year, he said.

The state and local unemployment figures for May are to be released Friday. Sacramento's unemployment rate in April was 6.1 percent.

UCLA's Edward Leamer, director of the forecast and an expert on the U.S. economy, said the half-point jump in national unemployment last month, to 5.5 percent was troubling but not enough to prove that a recession is at hand.

He said much of the increase was due to the surge in high school and college graduates entering the work force, not a barrage of layoffs.

"I am holding on to what is now a shaky view: no recession this year," Leamer wrote.