Total holiday retail sales are expected to increase 5 percent over last year, bringing holiday spending to $457.4 billion. In comparison, holiday sales in 2005 rose 6.1 percent to $435.6 billion.

The National Retail Federation released the forecast on Sept. 19, and said "retailers can expect a more subdued holiday season."

Over the last 10 years, the average percentage increase in sales for the holiday season is 4.6 percent. One-fifth of retail industry sales occur during the holiday season, making it the most important time period of the year for the industry.
 
"Consumers have faced a number of economic challenges this year and have taken them in stride," said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. "Although sales gains will not be as robust as last year, retailers can still expect above-average holiday sales growth."